Offside stats in football are highly random. Predicting the exact number of offsides in a match takes a good deal of luck, and I’d say anyone who claims otherwise is selling something. But it isn’t hopeless. Careful analysis can help, and the market does have some patterns.
A few things are worth checking first. How high does the opponent’s defence play? Does the team often try to catch rivals in an offside trap? A side that plays a very high line gives the other team more chances to be flagged, and the other way around. The offside statistics table on our site shows the average number of offsides for teams in Europe’s top leagues.
I’d also look at the offsides per match in recent games, not only the season average. A team that changed its coach in October may behave very differently from the same team in August.
In short, a player is in an offside position if any part of his head, body or feet is closer to the opponent’s goal line than both the ball and the second-last opponent, in the opponent’s half. Being in that position isn’t an offence in itself. It’s an offence only if he takes part in the play. This is where fans argue the most, and honestly, so do some referees.
Offsides have existed since the beginning of football, although the offside rule has changed multiple times over the years.
That last change is the big one, because it led to many more goals in the following season. Every fan should also know in which situations a player in an offside position can be penalised:
The offside trap is a tactic where defenders step up together, just before the pass, to leave an attacker offside. It needs timing, communication and a back line that moves as one. It looks easy on a whiteboard. In real matches, one defender stays a step behind and a striker is through on goal. A high defensive line brings the same risk and the same reward, so teams that use it usually collect more offsides, for and against.
Some coaches are known for it. Hansi Flick and Ange Postecoglou are common examples. Matches with their teams are where I’d think about over offsides first. Not blindly, of course, because a team can have a high line and still face an opponent who rarely goes forward.
Technology changed how offsides are judged. VAR checks the tight calls, and in some competitions semi-automated offside technology is used. In practice, it means more offsides get flagged by the video system, and fewer goals survive by a few centimetres. It also changed how attackers run, since many now play closer to the last defender line. If you follow the data over several seasons, check whether the average number of offsides changed in a league after VAR came in.
When analysing offside statistics, look at the number of offsides in the last matches of both teams, and at the opponent’s style. Teams that play with a lone striker running behind the defence get flagged more often. Teams with a mobile midfield and short passes less so. It connects with the passing stats and the possession statistics, because a team that keeps the ball for long periods against a deep block tends to have fewer chances to be offside, simply because there’s less space behind the line.
Some players are always on the shoulder of the last defender, and the numbers show it. Player offsides are usually highest for fast strikers and wingers, and some bookmakers offer a market for them. Team offsides are more stable from match to match. The top goalscorers list is a decent place to look for players who live on that edge.
You can also see how offsides tie in with chances created. A team with lots of offsides and few shots on goal is probably running into the line again and again. And a team with a high expected goals number and few offsides is creating chances in a cleaner way.
