Penalty kicks are a big part of football. They’re given for fouls and handballs inside the box, and some teams, even single players, take quite a lot of them in a season. I want to look at why penalty statistics matter and how to use them when betting. Do they give you an edge? Sometimes. Not always, and I won’t pretend otherwise.
The number that matters most in penalty stats is conversion. Some players almost never miss, and Robert Lewandowski is the first name I think of, with that calm, well-practised routine. But goalkeepers count as well, and I feel people forget that. Top leagues have a few real specialists at saving penalties.
Penalties usually go to teams that spend a lot of time in the opponent’s box, so you’d expect sides with more possession to get more of them. Maybe. It’s too simple, and I’ve seen it fail often enough to check the details every time. Our possession statistics and shots on goal pages help with that.
Penalty conversion averages around 75%. That’s one of the best scoring chances in the game, which is why takers stay after training to practise. When you look at misses, check the success rate and the number converted together. A player with many misses may simply take every penalty for the team. I once dismissed a taker after three misses, and then saw he had taken about twenty. Bad call.
Penalties per season change a lot from year to year, so they’re hard to predict. Matches between a favourite and an underdog often have a higher chance of one, and it can come from a tiny mistake by the weaker defence.
In the 2022/23 Primera Division season each team got an average of 5.75 penalties. It looks low, but it’s 4 to 5 goals over the season. See the current La Liga results. A related read is our yellow and red card statistics, and fouls statistics, because every penalty starts with a foul.
People have long assumed 75% of penalties turn into goals. In the Premier League in 2022/23 it was close, with 71%. So the penalty conversion rate doesn’t lie much, though it depends on who takes it and who’s in goal. Check the Premier League page for current numbers.
Teams with several good takers use penalties best. Barcelona and Manchester City are the usual examples. It’s not about one good player, especially in a shootout, when the coach has to pick five.
A good penalty taker needs a routine and calm nerves. Some always pick the same corner, some wait for the goalkeeper to move. Lewandowski watches the keeper right before the shot and then goes the other way, with what looks like a gentle but confident finish. When you check top goalscorers, look at how many goals come from the spot. 15 goals with 6 penalties isn’t the same as 15 from open play.
Goalkeepers: the penalty save percentage is low, I think around 20%, so one with a clearly higher number is worth noting. But a small sample lies easily, and one great season doesn’t make a specialist. In shootouts some keepers choose one corner and dive there every time, hoping a shot comes that way. Any strategy is fine if it works. For other goalkeeper numbers, there are the clean sheet stats.
A retake can happen if the goalkeeper wasn’t on the line or a player entered the area too early. Retaken penalties are often said to be scored less often, because of the pressure after a miss, and because the keeper now knows more about the taker. Probably true. Don’t quote me on it.
VAR has changed the numbers in many leagues. Fouls that the referee missed get checked, and in some competitions more penalties are awarded. It also made decisions slower and more debated, which still annoys me. If you bet on penalties, look at how the league uses VAR and at the referee stats of the person in charge.
In a shootout, conversion differs from round to round, and it’s often said to drop with each shot because of the pressure. Most players can score from 11 metres. Only a few can do it when the win of their team depends on it. So goalkeepers may have an easier time in the first 2 or 3 rounds. I’m not sure how well the data supports this, to be honest. Shootouts matter most in knockout tournaments like the Champions League and the World Cup.
Penalties have been in football from early on. We have William McCrum to thank, a goalkeeper himself. Players stopping the ball with their hands made defending too easy, so he proposed a punishment, and the English FA introduced the rule in 1891. The first penalties looked different from today’s, with no penalty area and no spot yet, and the players had to appeal to the referee to get one.
Bookmakers offer penalty betting, so the stats are useful. Common markets:
Look at matches with teams that get penalties regularly. Research the referee, because some whistle more in contentious situations. And consider forwards and wingers who dribble a lot. Defenders often struggle against players like Vinicius or Leão, and sometimes foul in the box.
You can combine this with over/under, BTTS and 1X2 stats, and look at match streaks and expected goals to see whether a team creates more than it scores. For everything else, go back to football stats or the live results on the home page.
